I had a comment on my post yesterday that Democrats are deluding themselves if they think America is ready for an African-American presidential candidate. I hope and think that’s not true.
But it raises perhaps the key aspect of prediction. Part of my living is made as a forecaster (fortunately not a political forecaster), and I’ve devoted a lot of time to studying what some might call the science of prediction. And in some areas, there certainly is a science of prediction. I can state with absolute certainty that there will be a solar eclipse on August 1st. But the hard truth is there is no science to most of what we try to predict. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future,” as the great physicist Niels Bohr said (bizarrely mis-attributed to Yogi Berra on a lot of websites).
One statement I can make with great certainty, however, is that firmly held beliefs about the future are true – until they aren’t.
I don’t mean that sarcastically. Even the most perceptive, intelligent people are terrible at understanding the significance of the forces that create change (present company included). Once change occurs, analysis can be very effective. I recall a conversation with some political scientists in 2005 about the next year’s congressional elections. Despite the growing opposition to Bush, the electoral mathematics – the power of incumbency, the way districts were drawn, the seeming handful of truly contestable seats – made it seem highly improbable that the Democrats could seize control of the House. Until they did.
Now it may prove that there is a hard core of Americans so benighted that they cannot bring themselves to vote for a black man. And that hard core may be large enough to prevent Obama becoming president in November as the Democratic nominee. I personally find it hard to look at the electoral map of states a Democrat needs to win to triumph and believe that. But for people who think that might be the case, the reality is that it’s true until it isn’t.
We’ll have to wait and see… That’s usually the only way to test predictions!
Please keep in mind, that I am a non-American observer, and that I sincerely hope that the US is ready for a non-white President. I just have my doubts.
Keep in mind that a similar argument can be made about a woman president. It is rather remarkable that this early on we know that the Democratic nominee is going to be either an African American or a woman. Clearly something changed. Whether it is enough to win the general election only time will tell.
I agree absolutely, Just An Observer. We’ll have to wait and see.
You’re not alone in your speculation. I live in what is certifiably the most liberal place in the country (Berkeley) and I hear people of impeccable left-wing credentials worrying about the same thing.
This may be a hackneyed point, but why is Obama called black anyway? He might as well be called white, since his mother was white. It’s a slightly sad comment on America that those words are used: they wouldn’t be in Jamaica or Africa or Brazil and they’d be used less in the UK than they are right now in the US. As far as I know Ghanaians didn’t constantly refer to Jerry Rawlings as white.
Indeed – the Manchester United player Ryan Giggs looks white and speaks with a Mancunian accent. Yet when asked why he doesn’t play for England, he says that he is Welsh. He also says he is black.