I don’t think there were many realists who thought the Kyoto pact was ever a sure thing, but now that it looks likely that Russia will not ratify the treaty, it’s clearly a dead duck. But that begs the question of what countries are to do about global warming.
I was startled to see how badly much of Europe was doing on Kyoto requirements. Only Britain and Sweden look likely to exceed their commitment of reducing 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions 8% by 2010. Denmark, extraordinarily, is bottom of the pack at nearly 40% off target.
If enthusiasts like Denmark are doing this badly, what hope is there for concerted action worldwide? I hope technology optimists are right that answers will be found, but what worries me is that even if emission levels stay where they are, we are already stuck with the consequences of our last century of polluting for many decades to come. Just part of the cheery outlook you get from reading the essential Something New Under the Sun by John McNeill (when I met Kieran Healy in Canberra the other week, he told me that he’d stopped reading it because it was too depressing).