I visited a friend in Amsterdam yesterday and — despite the enduring beauty of the city — had a rather disquieting experience.

Partly it was the discussion I had with my friend. He’s a distinguished economist, a friend from my Davos days. And he was gloomy about the current course of the world. He sees the US increasingly influenced by evangelical groups, wholly alien to a liberal European perspective. Latin America, after some signs of promise in the ’90s, is slipping back to dangerous populism, personified by Hugo Chavez. Continental Europe is sclerotic. And Africa should be a scar on all of our consciences, but is hardly thought about by most of us.

Europe was a particular worry. I’d taken the metro to his neighborhood and been shocked by the ’80s-era NY graffiti covering every carriage. It looked horrible and my friend told me he no longer feels safe taking the metro in his home city. What’s happened to easy-going, tolerant Amsterdam?

It gets worse from his perspective. He recently attended a presentation of the latest Shell scenarios. His question to Shell’s CEO: have you considered the problem of localized chaos in western Europe? He envisages destablizing riots in France, Belgium and the Netherlands in the not-so-distant future. He thought it was a good time to be heading for Berkeley. “Here in Europe,” he reflected, “we’re no where near understanding the nature of a multicultural society.”

It was a sunny day on the canals, but I left with images of dark times ahead.