The problem with predictions

A healthy rule from Wolfgang Münchau at Eurointelligence:

Being a columnist myself, one of the things I have learned is never to make predictions that are likely to be falsifiable at a time when the memory of the column is still fresh – about a week or so. That means concretely: Do not forecast next week’s inflation figures, and certainly do not forecast next week’s elections.

More important is his admonition to “use your brain, not your model”.

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