Living in the Bay Area, it’s been impossible to avoid the many commemorations of the great San Francisco earthquake, which struck 100 years ago this morning. Fortunately, today the earth didn’t move. At least, not so that I could feel it: there are hundreds of imperceptible quakes each week in California and I’m sure today was no exception.

My wife can’t understand why I don’t go to bed fearful of the Big One striking while we sleep. We live, after all, a very short walk from the Hayward fault, which is seismologists’ best bet for the next major quake in California. I may just be oblivious, but I am also aware of how shaky statistics such as “there’s a 30% chance of the Big One hitting the Bay Area in the next 30 years” are. Maybe yes, maybe no.