Russia: even worse than it seems

Murray Feshbach, who I referenced in an earlier post about Russia’s terrifying demographic decline, offers a comment:

If anything I would now say that I was underestimating the losses to the population of Russia in the future. The current official projection (medium) by the Russian State Statistical Agency is some 101 million in 2050. My expectation is that the number will be closer to 75-80, approximately the level of worst-case scenario. The current and imminent number of deaths from HIV/AIDS is much worse than anticipated, as well as the number of deaths from tuberculosis. In addition, hepatitis C deaths will, ceteris paribus, begin to be devastating at the end of the next decade. None of these health factors were incorporated into the projection model of the Statistical Agency.

One thought on “Russia: even worse than it seems

  1. Edward Hugh

    Hi Lance

    This is Edward from Afoe. Since our trackback isn’t working just to let you know that Doug has linked to this, and you may be interested in my Fertility Trap post just below Doug’s.

    Keep up the good work


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