From Fistful of Euros (a site I’ve long followed, but which is becoming essential for understanding the global implications of the economic storm we’re in):
While it may well be true that China is not (yet) entering the Second Great Depression, I am arguing that China is really going to be one of the worst case scenarious in the current global recession, and that consensus thinking still has a very very long way to go in catching up with events in the China case.
As convention has it, you should read the whole analysis. It’s hard to imagine worse news for the global economy — and for the geopolitical situation. Political stability in China has been bought by the year after year, steady, strong economic growth. Take that away, and what do you have?
During the presidential debates I wondered why China was hardly mentioned. President Obama and his administration have plenty of things on their agenda: the US economy, two wars, climate change, healthcare reform, education reform. China is going to force itself onto that list.