Davos Newbies

David Warsh:

You thought it was a big deal when the first Chicago economist took a seat on the Council of Economic Advisers (William Niskanen in 1981)? The chances are that the United States is about to get a president from Chicago’s Hyde Park – and learn something in the process about the difference between a liberal and a libertarian.

Well worth reading the whole thing if you want a sophisticated view of the economic issues and philosophies at play in the election.

Kevin Drum:

And as long as I’m making grand pronouncements that quite possibly might make me look like an idiot in the near future, here’s another one: among the states Bush won in 2004, I think Obama will win Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and maybe even Arkansas. That’s even accounting for the fact that he’ll lose a few points in some of those states for purely racial reasons. This might officially make me the most optimistic Obama supporter in the world, but there you have it.

I’m not sure about Arkansas, but I feel pretty good about Missouri and I wouldn’t rule out Florida.

If you want to get a sense of what Obama might mean for the rest of the world, rather than read offensive nonsense from Anne Applebaum in The Washington Post, read Dominique Moisi in the Financial Times. After noting that if the election were held in France, Obama would win in a landslide (here, too, Dominique), he writes:

Whatever the result of this November’s US presidential election – and it is impossible to predict today – one thing is certain: America, thanks to Mr Obama, has returned to be the emotional centre of gravity of the world, and this time not only in tragic terms as it was after September 11 2001, or in negative terms as during most of the George W. Bush years.

Over the weekend I went to an Obama nomination celebration in the Berkeley hills. A decent crowd showed up to revel in completing the first giant step in a historic, transformative campaign. During the toasts to Obama’s coming victory, I was very moved to hear a series of stories about people met during the campaign so far, who have been seized with the conviction that, as Obama frequently says in his speeches, “we are the ones we have been waiting for”.

My only regret on the day is that my parents aren’t around to see it. My mother and father were long-standing fighters for social justice and progressive politics on many levels: against fascism in the ’30s and ’40s, for workers’ rights, for civil rights, against the war in Vietnam from the earliest moments (standing vigil in front of the Winnetka post office – the local “symbol” of the federal government – every Saturday morning for years and years), against apartheid, and on and on.

It’s almost impossible to imagine how galvanized and emotional they would have been this week. November 4 is going to be even better, I’m confident.