The November landslide
May 9th, 2008
Okay, I’m a complete Obama KAD (Kool-Aid Drinker, to borrow the term used on Peter Bodo’s non pareil tennis blog). But I’m going to extend my record for political forecasting to say that Obama will win by a huge margin in November.
I know I don’t spend my time with those hard-working white Americans that Hillary favors, but I’ll cite a few strands in evidence:
- I keep meeting people who say something on the order of “I’ve voted Republican for years, but I’m supporting Obama”. People are desperate for change.
- It’s always tough to fight a movement. As Hillary discovered.
- “Losing his bearings” wasn’t about age. But part of the election will be. Every image of McCain and Obama will re-emphasize that one candidate is old and cranky, the other is young and vigorous. (To say nothing of one is tall and one is short.)
- Third term of George W. Bush. Does anything more need to be said?
- The economy stinks. The war is a disaster on truly historic scale. McCain is utterly wrong on both points and the Republicans stuck us with both. Voters want payback.
- John McCain, November 2005: “I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.”
- 100 years in Iraq.
- Obama will have an unlimited supply of money. McCain won’t. I wish that didn’t matter in politics, but it does.
I could go on and on. What about racism? Sure, there are people in the US who will never vote for the black candidate. But they are a diminishing number, and a lot of them don’t vote. Without wanting to trivialize the running sore of race in the country, the last few decades of popular culture have been as influential in changing perceptions as the heroic moments of the civil rights movement and the legislative accomplishments of the Great Society. Will Smith, Tiger Woods, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Denzell Washington, Oprah Winfrey, Colin Powell and even Condi Rice have dramatically changed perceptions.
It’s a landslide.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Oh well we’re doomed now.
May 9th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Thanks for that vote of confidence.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
And remember what my tennis coach says: “Even the blind squirrel sometimes finds the nut.”
May 13th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
[...] Leyden, who runs the interesting New Politics Institute, had an excellent response to my post on Obama’s coming landslide victory in [...]
May 27th, 2008 at 11:51 am
9 TRILLION national debt. Trillions in unfunded liabilities. I’m never going to earn enough to cover my share of this tax burden and neither will my wife. So you trot on out and vote for the republicrat of your choice and then get to work earning that taxable income ; but be sure you put in some overtime so you can pay my share also. Or put it off so your kids can pick up the tab.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:20 am
[...] in completing the first giant step in a historic, transformative campaign. During the toasts to Obama’s coming victory, I was very moved to hear a series of stories about people met during the campaign so far, who have [...]
October 7th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
[...] I know there are four weeks to election day, but that debate really nailed it. I’m feeling very happy about my May prediction of a landslide. [...]
November 1st, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Hi, its nov 2 and i stumbled across your blog. kind of eeeeerie. Yes its going to be a motha of a landslide. I almost feel sorry for mcain..almost. this is a movement that hasnt topped off yet. you didnt mention the bank meltdown in your original analysis although im not saying you didnt see it coming.This is more than just a great campaign or a hatred of bush, althought thats part of it. I definately see a moving back to the center left, which, i beleive is the natural political posture for america, 21st century. the right goes on about how “america is a conservative right of center culture” with all eveidence to the contrary. on just about any single issue polled, abortion, church – state , corporate taxes, health care, etc., we are center left. add to that the bush catastrophe and nuts like pat robertson praying for the end of the world and we are moving sharply left. its a good thing.