Comments on: Diminishing Russia

By: CapTVK

CapTVK — Wed, 20 Jul 2005 20:06:47 +0000

I should add that in particular the russian male population is suffering the worst blows. Not only the diseases noted above but also suicide and alcoholism (liver cirrhosis) are a major cause of death in the 40+ age groups. I have a feeling that the worst may be over now that the Russian economy is crawling out of the ravine that was left after the collapse of the USSR. Still, those blows will be felt for decades to come.

By: Lance Knobel

Lance Knobel — Mon, 18 Jul 2005 20:05:41 +0000

Murray, thanks for providing that chilling update on the statistics.

By: Murray Feshbach

Murray Feshbach — Sun, 17 Jul 2005 13:07:42 +0000

To the Observer:

Thanks.

If anything I would now say that I was underesting the losses to the population of Russia in the future. The current official projection (medium) by the Russian State Statistical Agency is some 101 million in 2050. My expectation is that the number will be closer to 75-80, approximately the level of worst-case scenario. The current and imminent number of deaths from HIV/AIDS is much worse than anticipated, as well as the number of deaths from tuberculosis. In addition, hepatitis C deaths will, ceteris paribus, begin to be devastating at the end of the next decade. None of these health factors were incorporated into the projection model of the Statistical Agency. Net in-migration will make up for some of the excess mortality versus fertility, but far from enough. Other factors too numerous to include here also play a part. MF

By: Thomas

Thomas — Sat, 25 Jun 2005 18:29:12 +0000

It’s bad enough without spelling errors : the article says “60th birthday”, not “16th birthday”…

It’s still an excellent blog. Keep going !