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Tomorrow night, Jay Rosen and I are going to get on the stage at Melbourne’s Town Hall and try to convince Melburnians that something fundamental has changed in the media world. I’m sure Jay will be far more eloquent about it than I, but if you want to read what I’m planning to say, you can find my draft here.

I’ve long argued that the Conservative party is going to need to undergo the same painful process through which Neil Kinnock, John Smith and finally Tony Blair reformed the Labour party into an electable party. Since the Tories haven’t even had their Kinnock yet, I think this is still going to take a very long time (which pleases me no end).

Tim Yeo seems to understand this. Writing in today’s Guardian, he notes:

We must recognise that elections are won only on the centre ground. This is an inherently difficult and even unwelcome message for activists whose instinct is to believe that fiercer attacks on the government and more loyal adherence to rightwing principles is the route back to power. It took Labour a decade and a half to learn that victory comes from broadening, not deepening, the party’s appeal to the electorate. If we don’t face up to the message of a vote share that’s stuck at 33%, there’s a danger it will take us much longer.

We’ll see whether the majority of his colleagues agree with him in the leadership contest that is looming. My guess is that they’ll opt for more of the same rather than radical change. I certainly can’t envision any scenario under which the Conservatives return to power in 2009. There’s some chance that Labour may find itself in coalition with the LibDems then (although I reckon that’s not likely), but there’s no way the Conservatives can achieve a parliamentary majority.